What lies ahead for Iran’s economy as scope of US war grows beyond Hormuz? 美伊战事波及霍尔木兹以外海域 伊朗经济前景何在？

Tehran, Iran – Iran and the United States have returned to mediated talks, and their military action is temporarily suspended, but the war continues to impact international maritime corridors beyond the Strait of Hormuz as well as domestic markets.

译伊朗德黑兰——伊朗与美国已重返有斡旋方参与的谈判，双方军事行动暂时中止，但这场战争仍在持续影响霍尔木兹海峡以外的国际海运走廊以及伊朗国内市场。

The near-total closure of the strategic waterway, disruptions in the Red Sea by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen and Ukraine attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea have all kept tensions high.

译这条战略水道近乎全面关闭、也门亲伊朗的胡塞武装在红海制造的航运中断，以及乌克兰在里海袭击一艘伊朗船只，均使紧张局势居高不下。

list of 4 items- list 1 of 4Iran accuses Ukraine of deadly attack on Caspian commercial vessel

译四条相关报道之一：伊朗指责乌克兰对里海商船发动致命袭击

- list 2 of 4After Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, has Iran war now reached Caspian Sea?

译四条相关报道之二：继霍尔木兹海峡与红海之后，伊朗战事是否已蔓延至里海？

- list 3 of 4Iran’s government spars with state TV as mediators push talks with US

译四条相关报道之三：斡旋方推动美伊谈判之际，伊朗政府与国家电视台发生争执

- list 4 of 4Iran’s army issues warning ahead of Netanyahu’s US visit

译四条相关报道之四：内塔尼亚胡访美前夕，伊朗军方发出警告

Iran’s government is also facing more tough choices, including a potential fuel price hike amid high social and economic discontent, as the US military enforces a naval blockade of the country’s southern ports for a second time.

译随着美军第二次对伊朗南部港口实施海上封锁，伊朗政府还面临更多艰难抉择，包括在社会与经济不满情绪高涨之际可能上调燃油价格。

The Ministry of Petroleum said on Saturday that Iran has sold $11.5bn of crude oil during the war without specifying the exact dates and $6.5bn during the period of the now-suspended memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the US last month. It said the combined figure represented 60 percent of the full-year oil revenue target in the budget.

译伊朗石油部周六表示，伊朗在战争期间售出了115亿美元的原油（未说明具体日期），其中65亿美元是在上月与美国签署、现已中止的谅解备忘录（MoU）有效期内实现的。该部称，上述总额相当于预算中全年石油收入目标的60%。

The signing of the June 17 MoU led to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, which eased some of the pressure on global oil markets and allowed Iran to export oil stored on supertankers waiting to sail from its territorial waters. Iran’s Petroleum Ministry said increased oil prices generated about $3bn in additional value in the first half of the year and $11bn from the yields has so far been transferred to government coffers despite US embargoes.

译6月17日谅解备忘录的签署使霍尔木兹海峡部分重新开放，美国对伊朗的海上封锁得以解除，这在一定程度上缓解了全球石油市场的压力，并使伊朗得以出口储存在其领海内等待启航的超级油轮上的石油。伊朗石油部称，油价上涨在今年上半年带来约30亿美元的额外收益，尽管美国实施禁运，迄今已有110亿美元收入划入政府国库。

During the previous blockade that was imposed on April 13 and lasted a little over two months, Iranian authorities attested to near-zero crude exports. A prolonged second blockade risks further reducing Iran’s export revenues and piling pressure on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports pass, and other Iranian storage and export sites, which could in turn affect production at petrochemical plants and make an eventual restart costlier and slower.

译在4月13日开始、持续两个多月的上一轮封锁期间，伊朗当局证实原油出口近乎为零。第二轮封锁若旷日持久，可能进一步削减伊朗的出口收入，并对哈尔克岛（伊朗约90%的原油出口经此运出）及其他储运设施构成压力，进而影响石化工厂的生产，使日后复产的成本更高、进程更慢。

The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said that as of Saturday, soldiers had redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade that has been in place since mid-July, disabled two that did not comply and boarded two “to ensure total compliance”.

译美军中央司令部（CENTCOM）表示，截至周六，美军士兵已拦截并令12艘试图突破封锁的商船改变航向。该封锁自7月中旬起实施。美军还使两艘拒不服从的船只失去行动能力，并登上两艘船只“以确保完全服从”。

The US military also showed footage of heavily armed soldiers rappelling down from a helicopter onto the deck of the Charminar, an Iran-linked oil tanker subject to US sanctions since last year for allegedly being part of the Shamkhani network. The US says Iranian oil magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani plays a central role in Iranian and Russian shadow fleet operations.

译美军还公布了全副武装的士兵从直升机索降至“查米纳尔”号油轮甲板的画面。这艘与伊朗有关联的油轮自去年起因涉嫌隶属沙姆哈尼网络而受到美国制裁。美国称，伊朗石油巨头穆罕默德·侯赛因·沙姆哈尼在伊朗和俄罗斯的“影子船队”运作中扮演核心角色。

Iran has also said it has been redirecting multiple ships each day to keep the strait closed as its armed forces emphasised that they will not bow to pressure. On Sunday, Iranian media reports said a vessel blew up after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

译伊朗方面也表示，其每天都在迫使多艘船只改道，以维持海峡的封闭状态；伊朗武装部队强调，绝不会屈服于压力。周日，伊朗媒体报道称，一艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡触碰水雷后发生爆炸。

Still, CENTCOM has stopped extensive bombing strikes against Iran for two nights with US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz saying President Donald Trump is giving talks with Tehran “some space”.

译尽管如此，美军中央司令部已连续两晚暂停对伊朗的大规模轰炸。美国常驻联合国代表迈克·沃尔兹表示，特朗普总统正在给与德黑兰的谈判“留出一些空间”。

Iran has also stopped retaliatory attacks across the region while Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been productive.

译伊朗也已停止在该地区的报复性打击。伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴加伊表示，与阿曼就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡进行的磋商富有成效。

The oil export constraints, however, are still adding to Iran’s existing economic woes, which are linked to domestic structural issues and mismanagement as well as years of harsh sanctions.

译然而，石油出口受限仍在加剧伊朗既有的经济困境。这些困境既源于国内结构性问题与管理不善，也与多年严厉制裁有关。

Iran’s infrastructure has also suffered significant damage during the war launched by the US and Israel in late February and may fare worse if the conflict escalates.

译在美国和以色列于2月下旬发动的这场战争中，伊朗的基础设施亦遭受重创；若冲突升级，形势可能进一步恶化。

The government said last month that about 230 million cubic metres (300 million cubic yards) per day of Iran’s pre-war natural gas output of roughly 650 million cubic metres (850 million cubic yards) was lost due to US and Israeli bombing, worsening electricity and petrochemical shortages.

译伊朗政府上月表示，在战前每日约6.5亿立方米（8.5亿立方码）的天然气产量中，约有2.3亿立方米（3亿立方码）因美以轰炸而损失，加剧了电力和石化产品短缺。

Sekhavat Asadi, managing director of the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone, said on Sunday that Iran expects to restore more than 100 million cubic metres (130 million cubic yards) per day of that lost production capacity within the coming months.

译帕尔斯能源特别经济区总经理塞哈瓦特·阿萨迪周日表示，伊朗预计将在未来数月内恢复其中每日逾1亿立方米（1.3亿立方码）的损失产能。

Authorities are also managing a fuel imbalance as the country faces a deficit of more than 20 million litres (5.3 million gallons) per day of petrol. The shortage is managed through limited but costly imports, blending fuel components, tapping inventories stocked before the war and repeatedly asking citizens to consume less.

译当局还在应对燃油供需失衡：伊朗汽油日均缺口超过2000万升（530万加仑）。目前的应对手段包括数量有限但成本高昂的进口、掺混燃料组分、动用战前储备库存，以及反复呼吁民众减少消费。

The Petroleum Ministry said tighter monthly fuel consumption caps may be imposed if the imbalance persists.

译伊朗石油部表示，若供需失衡持续，可能对月度燃油消费实施更严格的限额。

The government said this week that it is seriously considering doubling the price of a third tier of monthly petrol quotas allocated to individuals.

译伊朗政府本周表示，正认真考虑将分配给个人的第三档月度汽油配额价格上调一倍。

Another petrol price hike was made in December, weeks before the country was swept by a wave of nationwide protests, in which thousands of people were killed in a government crackdown in January. An overnight fuel price increase in November 2019 also triggered deadly nationwide protests.

译去年12月，伊朗曾上调汽油价格，数周后全国爆发大规模抗议浪潮；在1月的政府镇压中，数千人丧生。2019年11月的一次燃油价格连夜上调，也曾引发造成人员死亡的全国性抗议。

The capital, Tehran, and cities across the country are facing rolling electricity cuts, which also create water and communications disruptions. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he has ordered industries not to be cut off until late September to avoid further inflaming a bruised jobs market.

译首都德黑兰及全国各城市正面临轮流停电，并由此引发供水和通信中断。总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬表示，他已下令在9月下旬之前不得对工业企业断电，以免使本已受创的就业市场雪上加霜。

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also hit Iran’s commerce with China, its largest trading partner and buyer of oil, which has considerably curtailed its overall crude oil imports to adapt to conditions created by the war.

译霍尔木兹海峡的关闭还冲击了伊朗与中国的贸易。中国是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴和石油买家，为适应战争造成的局面，已大幅削减其原油进口总量。

But nonoil trade with China has also deteriorated since the start of the war, falling by 75 percent in March and June when compared with a year before, according to Chinese customs data.

译但中国海关数据显示，自战争爆发以来，伊中非石油贸易亦持续恶化，3月和6月同比下降75%。

Two near-total internet shutdowns imposed by the authorities, first during the January protests and then during the war, only worsened conditions for Iran’s economy this year as it battles chronic inflation and a rapid dwindling of public purchasing power.

译当局先后在1月抗议期间和战争期间两次实施近乎全面的断网，令伊朗经济今年的处境雪上加霜。伊朗正与长期通货膨胀以及民众购买力迅速萎缩苦苦缠斗。

A report last year by the Saba Pension Strategies Institute, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s state-run pension fund, found that while a little more than 30 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line five years ago, that rate was projected to have reached 45 percent this year – and was still rising.

译隶属于伊朗国营养老基金的智库“萨巴养老金战略研究所”去年发布的一份报告显示，五年前生活在贫困线以下的伊朗人略高于30%，而这一比例预计今年已达到45%，且仍在上升。

Spread to Bab al-Mandeb, Caspian Sea

译战火蔓延至曼德海峡与里海

After repeated Iranian threats that escalating the war could spread the scope of maritime disruptions to the Red Sea, the Houthis in Yemen last week declared a blockade against Saudi Arabia, turning back or hitting vessels transiting near the strait of Bab al-Mandeb while also bombing Saudi oil facilities.

译在伊朗多次威胁称战争升级可能使海上航运中断范围扩大至红海之后，也门胡塞武装上周宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施封锁，迫使途经曼德海峡附近的船只折返或对其发动袭击，同时轰炸沙特石油设施。

Dozens of commodity vessels have still continued their transit through the strait, including Chinese supertankers, but war-risk premiums have increased, raising import and insurance costs for all.

译包括中国超级油轮在内的数十艘商品运输船仍在继续通过该海峡，但战争风险保费已经上升，推高了各方的进口和保险成本。

Saudi authorities, who lead a coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, have responded by launching major air attacks across Yemen.

译沙特当局领导着一个支持也门国际承认政府、对抗胡塞武装的联盟，其回应是对也门全境发动大规模空袭。

And farther north, Ukraine has confirmed that it struck a vessel in the Caspian Sea with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleging it was carrying Iran-linked military cargo.

译在更北面，乌克兰已确认在里海袭击了一艘船只。总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基声称该船装载着与伊朗有关的军事货物。

Iran’s authorities said it was a commercial vessel importing iron from Astrakhan, a port on the Volga River in Russia, and bound for Bandar Anzali in northern Iran. They said one sailor was killed and three were wounded.

译伊朗当局则表示，那是一艘商船，正从俄罗斯伏尔加河畔的阿斯特拉罕港进口铁料，驶往伊朗北部的安扎利港。伊方称，一名船员死亡，三人受伤。

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Kyiv’s charge d’affaires in Tehran to deliver a strong protest and a warning that “the act will not go unanswered”.

译伊朗外交部召见了基辅驻德黑兰临时代办，提出强烈抗议并警告称，“此举不会得不到回应”。

The incident has raised concerns that the Caspian Sea, a waterway previously used safely for trade, could also become the scene of more military confrontations.

译这一事件引发担忧：此前一直安全用于贸易的里海水道，也可能沦为更多军事对抗的舞台。

Iran’s Caspian trade is primarily with Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. It imports essential goods, such as wheat and other grains, corn, barley and animal feed as well as timber and fertiliser.

译伊朗的里海贸易主要面向俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和阿塞拜疆。伊朗经此进口小麦及其他谷物、玉米、大麦、动物饲料以及木材和化肥等必需物资。

The country’s exports through the northern maritime route include construction materials, steel products, agricultural goods and some refined petrochemical products.

译伊朗经这条北方海上航线出口的商品包括建筑材料、钢铁制品、农产品以及部分成品石化产品。

The war’s expanding disruptions have only prompted hardline state-linked analysts to advocate closer strategic partnerships with China and Russia.

译战争造成的干扰不断扩大，促使与官方关系密切的强硬派分析人士主张与中国和俄罗斯建立更紧密的战略伙伴关系。

“We can now say that the two war fronts in the Middle East and Ukraine are increasingly intertwined,” Mahdi Kharratiyan, a political analyst linked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote on X on Sunday.

译“我们现在可以说，中东和乌克兰这两条战线正日益交织在一起。”与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队有关联的政治分析人士马赫迪·哈拉季扬周日在X平台上写道。