Tunisia grapples with five years of crisis since Saied’s power grab 赛义德夺权五年：突尼斯深陷经济与政治双重危机

Five years after Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament and attained sweeping powers, the country remains sharply divided, grappling with a severe economic downturn and a worsening political deadlock.

译突尼斯总统凯斯·赛义德（Kais Saied）中止议会运作并攫取广泛权力五年之后，该国依然严重分裂，深陷严峻的经济衰退与不断恶化的政治僵局之中。

Saied’s supporters continue to view the measures taken by him in July 2021 – when he suspended parliament and dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi – as a necessary “correction” to save the country. The opposition says that since then, state institutions have collapsed, promises have gone unfulfilled, and there has been an unprecedented concentration of power in his hands.

译赛义德的支持者仍将其于2021年7月采取的举措——中止议会运作并解除总理希沙姆·迈希希（Hichem Mechichi）职务——视为拯救国家的必要“纠偏”。反对派则表示，自那以后国家机构陷入瘫痪，承诺未获兑现，权力以前所未有的程度集中于其一人之手。

Speaking to Al Jazeera’s Ma Waraa al-Khabar (Behind the News) programme, political and economic experts debated the legacy of Saied’s five-year rule, painting a picture of an economy hindered by a poor business climate, populist policies, and a lack of clear vision.

译在半岛电视台《新闻背后》（Ma Waraa al-Khabar）节目中，政治与经济专家就赛义德五年执政的遗产展开辩论，勾勒出一幅因营商环境恶劣、民粹主义政策及缺乏清晰愿景而受阻的经济图景。

Since Saied assumed near-total control of the levers of power five years ago, Tunisia’s economic indicators have largely plummeted.

译自赛义德五年前几乎全面掌控权力杠杆以来，突尼斯的各项经济指标大多急剧下滑。

Ridha Chkoundali, an economics professor at the University of Tunisia, said that the investment rate in the country has dropped from an average of 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) between 2015 and 2019 to just 8 percent in 2023.

译突尼斯大学经济学教授里达·什昆达利（Ridha Chkoundali）表示，该国投资率已从2015年至2019年间平均占国内生产总值（GDP）20%的水平，降至2023年的仅8%。

Chkoundali attributed this sharp decline to an environment that drives away investment, exacerbated by a significant burden from taxes, which have risen by five percentage points since 2015.

译什昆达利将这一急剧下滑归因于排斥投资的环境，而沉重的税收负担进一步加剧了这一局面——自2015年以来，税率已上升五个百分点。

Taxation, he argued, is no longer used to stimulate investment but simply to collect revenues at the expense of economic growth.

译他认为，税收已不再被用于刺激投资，而只是以牺牲经济增长为代价来征收财政收入。

The crisis has hit ordinary Tunisians the hardest. Food inflation has reached nearly three times the general average, severely eroding purchasing power. Meanwhile, unemployment has surged, particularly among university graduates, pushing many to leave the country for better economic opportunities abroad.

译这场危机对普通突尼斯民众打击最重。食品通胀率已接近总体平均水平的三倍，购买力遭到严重侵蚀。与此同时，失业率大幅攀升，大学毕业生尤甚，迫使许多人离开该国前往海外寻求更好的经济机会。

Mohamed Abbou, a former minister of state and former secretary-general of the Democratic Current party, argued that the crisis is rooted in Saied’s style of governance, adding that the rule of law has been replaced by a climate of intimidation and threats.

译曾任国务部长、民主潮流党前秘书长的穆罕默德·阿布（Mohamed Abbou）认为，危机根源在于赛义德的治理方式，并称法治已被恐吓与威胁的氛围所取代。

“Tunisia has lost all credibility,” Abbou said. “Everyone fears the situation in Tunisia because there is no rationality… there is no stability in laws, taxes, or anything else.”

译“突尼斯已丧失全部公信力，”阿布说，“所有人都对突尼斯的局势感到担忧，因为这里没有理性可言……法律、税收乃至一切都缺乏稳定性。”

Abbou particularly criticised Saied’s approach to international finance, pointing out that the president rejected a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) purely to maintain a populist image. At the same time, he quietly implemented many of the IMF’s harsh austerity demands, such as halting public sector hiring and reducing imports.

译阿布尤其批评赛义德对待国际金融的态度，指出总统纯粹为了维持民粹主义形象而拒绝与国际货币基金组织（IMF）达成协议，却同时悄然落实了IMF提出的多项严苛紧缩要求，例如停止公共部门招聘和削减进口。

However, supporters of the current government argue that it is unfair to blame Saied’s administration entirely for an economic crisis that predates his rule.

译然而，现政府的支持者认为，将一场早于赛义德执政便已存在的经济危机完全归咎于其政府，是有失公允的。

Political analyst Souhaib Mezrigui says the current situation is the result of an absence of any clear economic or social vision over the past 10 years. He placed blame for the current crisis squarely on the political class that has ruled Tunisia since the 2011 revolution.

译政治分析人士苏海卜·迈兹里吉（Souhaib Mezrigui）表示，当前局面是过去十年间缺乏任何清晰经济与社会愿景的结果。他将当前危机的责任直接归于2011年革命以来统治突尼斯的政治阶层。

Protests and political prisoners

译抗议与政治犯

Tunisia’s economic stagnation has manifested into tangible anger on the streets. Coinciding with the five-year anniversary, thousands of Tunisians rallied in the capital’s Habib Bourguiba Avenue on Saturday, protesting against deteriorating living conditions, rolling water and electricity cuts, and a backsliding in democracy.

译突尼斯的经济停滞已化为街头切实可见的愤怒。适逢五周年之际，数千名突尼斯民众于周六聚集在首都哈比卜·布尔吉巴大道举行集会，抗议生活条件恶化、轮流停水停电以及民主倒退。

Organised by a coalition of opposition parties and the “Nafas” civil initiative, the crowds called for Saied to “leave” and revived the 2011 democratic revolution’s rallying cry: “The people want the fall of the regime”.

译此次集会由反对党联盟与“纳法斯”（Nafas）公民倡议组织发起，人群高呼要求赛义德“下台”，并重新喊出2011年民主革命的口号：“人民要求政权垮台”。

A central demand of the protests was the release of political prisoners, who have filled Tunisia’s jails since Saied began his crackdown on dissent. Among the most prominent detainees is Rached Ghannouchi, the 85-year-old former parliament speaker and Ennahdha leader, who was recently sentenced to life in prison.

译抗议活动的一项核心诉求是释放政治犯。自赛义德开始镇压异见以来，政治犯已挤满突尼斯的监狱。其中最著名的在押人士是现年85岁的前议会议长、复兴运动党领导人拉希德·加努希（Rached Ghannouchi），他近期被判处终身监禁。

Ghannouchi’s health has rapidly deteriorated in detention. He recently fainted in Mornaguia prison, where temperatures reportedly reached 52 degrees Celsius (126 degrees Fahrenheit). Rights groups and families of detainees, such as opposition politician Ahmed Nejib Chebbi, have repeatedly warned about the dire conditions inside the detention facility and the toll it is taking on elderly inmates.

译加努希的健康状况在羁押期间迅速恶化。他近日在莫尔纳吉亚监狱中晕倒，据报道该监狱内温度高达52摄氏度（126华氏度）。人权组织及反对派政治人士艾哈迈德·内吉卜·谢比（Ahmed Nejib Chebbi）等在押人员的家属，已多次就该拘押设施内的恶劣条件及其对年迈囚犯造成的损害发出警告。

Imed al-Khamiri, a spokesman for the Ennahdha party, told Al Jazeera that the continued detention of political figures and opposition leaders remains a “disgrace to the Tunisian state”.

译复兴运动党发言人伊马德·哈米里（Imed al-Khamiri）对半岛电视台表示，持续羁押政治人物与反对派领导人仍是“突尼斯国家之耻”。

US lawmaker calls for sanctions

译美国议员呼吁实施制裁

Saied’s consolidation of power has also drawn renewed international condemnation. Marking the anniversary, US Representative Joe Wilson issued a scathing statement, accusing Saied of transforming the Arab world’s only constitutional democracy into a “one-man dictatorship”.

译赛义德的集权行径亦再度招致国际谴责。值此周年之际，美国众议员乔·威尔逊（Joe Wilson）发表措辞严厉的声明，指责赛义德将阿拉伯世界唯一的宪政民主国家变为“一人独裁政权”。

Wilson accused the Tunisian regime of phenomenally increasing corruption, destroying opportunities for the youth, and shifting its alliances to become a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iran, and Hezbollah.

译威尔逊指责突尼斯政权导致腐败急剧膨胀，摧毁青年发展机会，并转变结盟方向，成为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京、伊朗及黎巴嫩真主党的亲密伙伴。

Noting that Saied’s government has even jailed US citizens, Wilson urged the US State Department to issue a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory for Tunisia.

译威尔逊指出，赛义德政府甚至监禁了美国公民，并敦促美国国务院对突尼斯发布“第四级：请勿前往”的旅行警告。

“I will also continue to work to pass the Tunisia Democracy Restoration Act imposing sanctions on Saied and his inner circle,” Wilson stated on the social media platform X, adding: “Democracy in Tunisia will win in the end. Madmen tyrants will not last.”

译“我还将继续推动通过《突尼斯民主恢复法案》，对赛义德及其核心圈子实施制裁，”威尔逊在社交媒体平台X上表示，并补充道：“突尼斯的民主终将胜利。疯狂的暴君不会长久。”